Iraqi Tet - Would the outcome be the same as '68

On January 30, 1968, the Viet Cong launched a series of offensives that were designed to shake American support for the Vietnam war. Speaking from a military standpoint, the tet offensive was a horrendeous loss for the Viet Cong, but from a political and press standpoint it turned the war on its head and ultimately led to the United States withdrawing from Vietnam.

There is a concern within the administration that Al Qaeda may be planning a series of offensives as were executed in 1968. The administration is worried, because such an offensive could have a tremendous influence on support for the war, regardless of the outcome militarily.

History sometimes repeats itself, and the likelihood of a "tet" in Iraq is probably better than 50%; the aftermath is where history could change course. The President for all of his faults, has refused to give up on this war and truly believes it is winnable, and is more than willing to stake his entire legacy on that belief. Such a move would be directly opposite of President Johnson, who after the Tet Offensive, began the slow withdrawal of American forces from Vietnam.

Al Qaeda may plan and execute such an offensive, but absent a huge loss militarily, I do not see this President changing course. Good, bad or otherwise - he will ride the Iraq war to its ultimate end.